Water Scarcity

Compiled by: Yan Vana

Water scarcity refers to a situation where the demand for water exceeds the available supply within a particular region or country. It can occur due to physical water scarcity, which is a result of inadequate natural water resources such as rivers, lakes, and groundwater. It can also result from economic water scarcity, where the technology and infrastructure required to access and distribute water are insufficient.

As Earth’s human population continues to grow, the demand for water is increasing across all sectors, including domestic use, industry and agriculture. This heightened demand is placing additional stress on already limited freshwater resources, leading to acute water scarcity in many parts of the world.

Today, roughly 4 billion people, almost half the world’s population, experience water scarcity at least one month every year, regardless of their country’s wealth.^[1]

It is predicted that by 2100, up to 66 per cent of the world’s population will be affected by water scarcity.^[2]

The pressures on water are multi-faceted, the primary ones being population growth and climate change. As the environment continues to change rapidly, these pressures are expected to intensify, further stressing the delicate balance of the water-ecology-society-economy nexus.

Human population growth raises water demand across domestic, agricultural, and industrial uses. In particular, the growing population requires more food to sustain it, leading to expanded plant and animal agriculture that require substantial amounts of water.

Agriculture currently accounts for approximately 70 per cent of all global freshwater use.^[3]

Regional and global population growth also leads to increased cases of water pollution, further limiting the amount of freshwater available. Runoff from urban streets can carry oils, heavy metals, and other contaminants, while sewage water can leak into groundwater, bringing with it bacteria, nitrates, phosphorus and other chemicals. Industrial waste dumping also pollutes existing sources of freshwater with hazardous materials and toxic chemicals.

It is estimated that, currently, between 40 and 50 per cent of all available freshwater sources on earth are polluted.^[4]

Climate change is a direct consequence of human overpopulation and behaviour, and is inextricably linked to our planet’s water. Climate change affects the world’s water in complex ways. From unpredictable rainfall patterns to rising sea levels, shrinking ice sheets, droughts and floods; most impacts of climate change ultimately come down to water.^[5]

Climate change is exacerbating both water scarcity and water-related hazards such as floods and droughts. As rising temperatures disrupt precipitation patterns and the entire water cycle, millions of people around the world are finding it increasingly harder to access safe drinking water.^[6]

Between 2001 and 2018, around 74 per cent of climate change related natural disasters, including droughts and floods, had a direct impact on freshwater availability.^[6]

Water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover have already declined in recent decades and are projected to further decline over the remainder of the century. This has the effect of reducing water availability during warm and dry periods in regions supplied by melt water from major mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world’s population currently live.^[7]

Sea-level rise is projected to extend salinisation of groundwater, further decreasing freshwater availability for humans and ecosystems in coastal areas.^[7]

The infographic below illustrates the increasing intrusion of saltwater into fresh groundwater as sea levels rise.

The current climate change scenario predicts that as many as 700 million people will be displaced because of water scarcity by 2030.^[8]

Water scarcity means that wetlands — nature’s water filters and flood buffers — are vanishing three times faster than forests. Freshwater ecosystems have experienced an 85% decline in biodiversity since 1970, the most extensive decline of all ecosystems. The Pantanal, the world’s largest tropical wetland, spans Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay and is home to thousands of species, many of which are now endangered.

According to the United Nations, increasing global water scarcity is fuelling more conflicts and contributing to political instability. Water scarcity not only fans the flames of geopolitical tensions, it also disrupts medical treatment and basic hygiene.^[9]

Women and girls are among the hardest hit by water scarcity. Poor and marginalised groups are on the frontline of any water scarcity crisis, impacting their ability to maintain good health, protect their families and earn a living. For many women and girls, water scarcity means more laborious, time-consuming water collection, putting them at increased risk of attack and often preventing them from attending school or work.^[10]

Increased water extraction to support population growth disrupts natural ecosystems. As an example, population growth contributes to groundwater overdraft, the main cause of dry spell ecosystem degradation in many parts of the world.^[11]

Higher temperatures can increase the likelihood of deadly pathogens in freshwater making the declining resource dangerous to drink.

By 2040, roughly 1 in 4 children worldwide will be living in areas of extremely high water stress.^[6]

The World Bank estimates that by 2050, water scarcity could cost many of the world’s regions as much as 6% of gross domestic product (GDP).^[12]

[1] Concern USA

[2] Publication: Current and future global water scarcity intensifies when accounting for surface water quality (2024) – Dr. Edward Jones, Utrecht University (published in Nature)

[3] UNESCO

[4] The Living Lakes Network

[5] UN Water

[6] UNICEF

[7] Publication: Technical Paper VI: Climate Change and Water – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

[8] Water Aid

[9] The United Nations World Water Development Report 2024: Water for prosperity and peace

[10] UN Water

[11] Publication: Groundwater for People and the Environment: A Globally Threatened Resource (2024) – H. A. Loaiciga & R. Doh (published in NGWA)

[12] Publication: High and Dry: Climate Change, Water, and the Economy (2016) – World Bank Group

WWF

The Message is the ground-breaking debut novel by Yan Vana, a thought-provoking and critically acclaimed book that will change the way you think about human overpopulation, its effects and consequences.