On July 11, the United Nations marked its annual World Population Day, an annual occurrence which aims to raise awareness of global population trends and related issues.

Below are five facts about how the world’s population is projected to change in the coming decades, based on the most recent Pew Research Center analysis of the UN’s World Population Prospects.

1. Global population expected to reach 10.3 billion.

The Earth’s human population has more than tripled in the last 75 years and the UN expects it to grow by another 2.1 billion between now and 2084 – from 8.2 billion to 10.3 billion.

Having peaked at 10.3 billion, the population is expected to decline very slightly to 10.2 billion at the end of the century.

2. The world’s three most populous countries in 2025 are expected to have radically different trajectories in decades to come.

Those countries are India (which currently has about 1.5 billion people), China (1.4 billion) and the United States (347 million).

India is expected to see continued growth until it peaks at 1.7 billion people in 2061. Then it’s expected to gradually decline to 1.5 billion by 2100.

China’s population has already begun to shrink and is projected to fall to 633 million by 2100.

Meanwhile, the population of the United States is predicted to grow steadily to 421 million by 2100.

3. Five countries will be responsible for more than 60% of the world’s population growth by 2100.

The Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan and Tanzania, are predicted to account for more than 60% of the world’s population growth by 2100.

Nigeria and Ethiopia are the only African countries among the world’s 10 most populous places in 2025. But by 2100, two more – the Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania – are expected to join that list.

Among the 10 countries projected to contribute most to global population growth, the U.S. is the only one located outside of Africa and Asia.

4. The world’s population is expected to get older.

The world’s median age* is projected to rise to 42 by 2100, up from 31 today. Back in 1950, it was just 22.

The number of people on the planet aged 65 and older is expected to more than double, from 857 million today, to 2.4 billion by 2100. That would increase their share of the global population from 10% to 24%.

By 2100, the world is expected to have roughly equal shares of people under 25 and people 65 and older. This signifies a major shift from today, with younger people currently outnumbering older adults by approximately four-to-one. In 1950 it was roughly ten-to-one.

This shift is largely because of the growing number of older adults on the planet, but also because the number of people under 25 is projected to decrease from 3.3 billion today to 2.9 billion in 2100. The share of the global population under 25 is also expected to drop over the same time period, from 40% to 28%.

5. Africa is currently the world’s youngest region and projected to remain that way through to 2100.

The median age in Africa is 19 – significantly lower than any other region on the planet. Latin America and the Caribbean is the next-youngest region, but with a much older median age of 32.

Europe’s median age is currently 43, making it the oldest region in the world.

By 2100, Africa’s median age is projected to rise to 35, but it is expected to remain the most youthful region by a large margin.

When examining countries rather than regions, the median age in the U.S. is 39. It ranks among the oldest third of countries globally, but is slightly younger than many high-income countries in Europe and East Asia.

* Medians are used to help see overall patterns in the data. The median age is the middle number in a list of all ages sorted from highest to lowest.

Pew Research Center is a non-partisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, content analysis and other data-driven social science research. It does not take policy positions.

Submitted by Friends of Retha


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