China’s Child Policies Will Increase Future Carbon Emissions

China’s Child Policies Will Increase Future Carbon Emissions

China's Child Policies Will Increase Future Carbon Emissions

According to a new study by UCL researchers, relaxing its restrictions on family size will make it more difficult for China to achieve its goal to be carbon neutral by 2060.

The paper, published in Nature Climate Change, is the first research to analyse the impact of a country’s population policies on its future carbon emissions.

Researchers estimated the carbon footprint of China’s projected population under different fertility policies, including its former two-child policy, current three-child policy and a hypothetical ‘replacement-level’ birth rate (of 2.1 children), that would maintain the country’s population at its current level of about 1.4 billion indefinitely.

They found that by relaxing its fertility policies and allowing for more children, the country’s future population and associated carbon footprint will be greater than it would have otherwise been, making it far harder for China to achieve its declared goal of carbon neutrality by 2060.

Lead author of the study, Professor Zhifu Mi (UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction) said: “China is one of the most populous countries and one of the largest carbon emitters in the world. Capturing the impacts of fertility policies on the country’s future population and carbon emissions is crucial for its sustainable development.”

Originally introduced in 1979 to reduce demand on finite resources, China’s one-child policy largely limited the country’s population growth. It also had the effect of making the country demographically older over time, with fewer young people to offset the aging population. This one-child policy was replaced with a two-child policy in October 2015, and then by its current three-child policy in May 2021, aimed at reducing the country’s median age.

China's child policies will increase future carbon emissions
China's one child policy was originally introduced in 1979 to reduce demand on the country's resources.

In 2020, China’s fertility rate was 1.3 births per woman, lower than the ‘replacement-level’ of 2.1 births per woman needed to maintain its population.

The researchers analysed the projected carbon footprints from the different projected demographics under the three different population policies through to 2060, when China aims to be a carbon neutral country.

Although, collectively, China is the world’s largest carbon emitter, the amount of carbon produced per capita is lower than that of many developed countries. The average person in China annually produces about one sixth as much household carbon as someone from the United States, and about one third as much as someone from the UK or Japan. China’s average of about 2.34 tonnes of CO2 per capita is similar to that of Mexico, and about three times that of India.

However, this average is not universal across age demographics or regions in China. Young people have higher household carbon footprints (1.21 to 2.93 higher) than their elders, largely attributed to greater wealth which leads to greater consumption. The researchers found that now official policy allows for up to three children in China and the younger generations are wealthier than their elders, China is facing a potentially large increase in carbon emissions, reversing the recent trend.

In addition, the paper estimated the impacts of delayed retirement policies on China’s future carbon footprint. In September 2024, China announced plans to gradually raise its retirement age over the next 15 years, which the researchers found would also contribute to an increase in its carbon footprint.

Professor Zhifu Mi said: “It is our hope that this better understanding about the future of the carbon footprint of China’s population can help to inform policies that encourage young people to live more sustainable lifestyles, such as by reducing consumption, using public transport and purchasing long-lasting goods.”

At the time of writing, the population of China sits at approximately 1,418.313 million, a 12 per cent increase since 2000.

China's child policies will increase future carbon emissions
Younger people in China have higher household carbon footprints, largely attributed to greater wealth which leads to greater consumption.

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