Iraq’s population has surpassed the 47 million mark as it continues to grow at one of the fastest rates in the Middle East.

According to the country’s 2024 census, released this month, Iraq’s population is expanding by more than a million people annually, at a growth rate of 2.5%. International forecasts suggest that Iraq could reach 75 million by mid-century.

This rate of increase rivals the annual population growth of entire countries such as Spain or Australia, but without the equivalent infrastructure or services to meet the demand. For Iraq, this demographic upward spiral risks overwhelming vital services such as schools, hospitals, and water supplies.

Economist Mustafa al-Faraj told Shafaq News earlier this month that unchecked growth is already stretching basic services. “The surge has lifted overall unemployment to about 15% and youth unemployment to 32%,” he said. “If left without policy, this will become a mounting burden”.

Al-Faraj also highlighted a deeper structural gap. “What we have lacked since 2000 is a parallel leap in planning. The streets, networks, and utilities are almost the same, while the population keeps climbing. With two-thirds of Iraqis now in cities, the imbalance between people and state capacity explains today’s bottlenecks”.

And researcher Hawraa al-Yasseri warned that the country’s per-capita water supply is projected to fall to critical levels under climate stress, while overcrowded schools and underfunded clinics risk undermining human development.

The census also reported wider social trends. Poverty has declined slightly, from 21.5% in 2022 to 17.6% in 2024, but fertility remains high, at 3.3 children per mother.

“Without rapid investment, the gap between demographic pressures and service capacity could reopen a cycle of poverty,” Al-Farraj cautioned.

Lawmakers in Iraq have warned that the implementation of public services lags behind the reality of population growth. Mahdiya al-Lami, a member of parliament’s Services and Reconstruction Committee, described many districts as being severely underserved, calling some effectively “disaster zones”. She urged the need for targeted government plans that prioritise housing, water, and infrastructure in the fastest-growing areas.

Yet rather than address the issue of population growth, Iraqi officials believe the focus should be on expanding industry and creating more jobs.

Hawraa al-Yasseri agrees, stating that: “Iraq must expand non-oil industries to create new jobs and invest in human capital through health and education spending”.

At the time of writing, the population of Iraq sits at approximately 47.246 million, a 93 per cent increase since 2000. The fertility rate (average number of births per mother) is currently at 3.3.

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