The African economy is set to outgrow Asia for the first time in 2026 according to figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

As the median age in Europe, the United States, Australia, and other parts of the world, continues to rise, Africa’s youth population explosion is reshaping the global demographic balance.

Some African countries, such as Guinea, are forecast to grow at double-digit rates, while average growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to reach 4.6 per cent.

Over the same period, according to the IMF’s latest economic outlook, the combined economies of Asia will slow to around 4.1 per cent.

Analysts claim that Africa’s “key advantage” lies in its youth, which is rising faster than other global regions, but caution that investment is needed if the continent is to live up to its economic potential.

According to France’s development bank, the French Development Agency (AFD), by 2050, one in four people worldwide will be African.

In its annual review of Africa’s main macro-economic indicators, published this month, the AFD pointed to a surging workforce following years of accelerated population growth. And whilst the AFD highlights the strong potential for innovation and creativity, there is also concern over whether there will be sufficient jobs available for the number of young people reaching working age.

High numbers of births continue in East Africa, including Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda. West Africa, and particularly the Sahel, currently has the highest fertility rates in the world.

The AFD concedes that very high fertility rates can harm economies. And whilst countries such as Rwanda and Malawi have reduced fertility rates through family planning programmes, they are currently still at an unsustainable 3.6 children per female.

The danger, according to the AFD, is having insufficient quality employment available for the surge of young people reaching working age.

Where there are limited employment opportunities available, due to high demand for jobs, women are typically overlooked in favour of male employment. Limited employment opportunities for women outside the home generally means that their primary role becomes child-rearing.

Africa is facing what many believe is a difficult paradox. Years of rapid population growth have resulted in a wave of young people approaching working age. And whilst this translates into potential for huge economic growth for the continent, African leaders are concerned that the youth population will far outstrip the number of jobs available.

At the time of writing, the population of Africa sits at approximately 1.572 billion, a huge 89 per cent increase since 2000. The fertility rate (average number of births per mother) across Africa currently averages 3.89.

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